How many people have died in total in 2020 in Spain? And in other countries?

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How many people have died in total in 2020 in Spain? And in other countries?

Death Count and Estimation Study in 2020 by Country - Long-Term Perspective

We begin this Blog trying to critically and objectively clarify a series of very specific questions this pandemic year 2020, which we consider useful to know in order to have a broader perspective regarding all the deaths or deaths that have occurred this year 2020 of Global Pandemic for a sample of countries, as well as its Long-term perspective.

In the Conclusions of each Country Study, you will find answers to questions that we want to try to answer for each country, among others, the following:

How many deaths or deaths can it be estimated that there will be in total this year 2020?

Have there been more deaths or deaths in 2020 than in 2019?

What was the situation like before the 2020 Pandemic in terms of historical mortality?

In order to try to answer these and other questions, we have selected a sample of countries from which we find concrete mortality data for the last 59 years and for a specific period of 2020, and from this starting point extrapolate a Predictable range of Deaths for this year 2020 so that it can be compared and incorporated into the long-term records and understand the current situation in this context.

We want to make it clear that this Study only wants to provide a Forecast of total mortality of a sample of countries for 2020 and put it in its real historical context, which is as important or more, than this mortality data for 2020, since these representations are not abundant historical mortality charts. The total death data includes all registered deaths, that is, deaths due to disease and also natural deaths, homicides, suicides, traffic accidents and others, so this Study by itself will not determine whether or not there are Pandemic, neither if the deceased have died from a virus or not, or if the measures applied were better or worse, since this is not the objective, but rather to try to reasonably quantify the data for estimating total deaths in 2020 for each country of study and offer them in a long-term graphical perspective, for their understanding and / or analysis for those who may be useful.

Regarding the starting information, as you can see in the analyzes, the search for information has been different for each country. For some, the information is easily accessible and complete, for others less accessible and complete, and for some we have not been able to find it (we are not saying that it is not in a published site, but that we have not been able to find it). Currently, there is a lot of information in the media, especially on excesses of mortality over averages of past years, on forecasts, statistics, all very focused on the mortality of Covid 19, but there is little, in some cases, the objective data of 2020 of total mortality for a long and concrete period, the objective data to evaluate the current situation. And this, we understand, should be a key piece to be able to discern the situation of each country at the present time.

In the following Study of Counting and Estimation of Deaths in 2020 - Long-Term Perspective, we try to reduce the magnifying glass to be able to observe carefully and without other distractions the situation of each of the countries in the study sample from a perspective of annual series historical mortality, to try to reach some conclusions.

Regarding the methodology, it is a simple and understandable methodology for anyone, which uses real 2020 starting data on mortality as a source, preferably in a continuous and extensive period determined by 2020, to avoid assuming major assumptions and errors.

The present study is unofficial and independent, carried out with the available data, in some cases scarce; and with basic tools, so it can be subject to errors, and is merely informative. However, the long-term perspective of the Study means that certain assumptions or calculations should not give a high margin of error in a long-term context. The Study, in any case, is open to improvement and review, if someone finds an error in any specific data or methodology that could be wrong or not as precise as it should, they can contact us to provide us with the data and the source, and that the Study can be corrected, corrected or improved.

We will make all the tables used available to anyone who wants to review them.

The Methodology that has been used is simple and understandable, both in reasoning and in algebraic operations, to apply approximate assumptions of the Total Mortality of 2020, for each of the countries belonging to the Study sample:

1. Compilation of Total Number of Deaths between 1960 and 2019.

2. Long-Term Trend Analysis and Average Annual Variation Percentage 1960-2019.

3. Using 2019 data, find the Predictable Mortality in 2020 in Normal Conditions.

4. Analysis of the 2020 Mortality data for a specific period.

5. Extrapolation to the entire year 2020 of the Predictable Mortality in Normal Conditions (CN).

6. Extrapolation 2 to the entire year 2020 in Pandemic Conditions (P.C.).

7. Determination of the lower and upper Mortality Range for 2020.

8. Country Specific Charts and Tables

9. Country Specific Conclusions

Countries analyzed:

- Canada

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