Spain

Death Count and Estimation Study in 2020 in Spain - Long-Term Perspective

We began our Study with Spain, there is a lot of controversy about whether there have been more or less deaths this year 2020 than in 2019, with respect to past averages, and it is normal, since the majority information is focused only on infections and deaths from Covid-19 , and the total data on deaths or deaths from all causes during this year 2020 is scarce, or is outdated. It is as if the magnifying glass were focused only on what is Covid 19, and stopped attending to the rest of the deaths. If something is clear to us, it is that the death toll is an objective data that can help us understand the current situation, its long-term perspective, and be able to analyze the situation as a whole.

Preamble:

The Study uses real and official data when they are available in number, when they are not available, data taken manually from official graphs is used, and when there is no data, data are extrapolated in two possibilities:

1) Normal Conditions (NC): Long-term mortality (59-year-old sample) carries with it a growth inertia that affects this year 2020 regardless of the Pandemic, this growth will be applied to the year 2020 for the calculations of each country.

2) Pandemic Conditions (C.P.): In this case we will apply the Mortality of the data that we have from this year 2020 to find the estimated figure of Total mortality for 2020.

With these two hypotheses we will be able to establish a Predictable Mortality Rate Range for 2020. The lower of these two data will be the one that is incorporated into the Table with the Lower Rank 2020 Mortality Hypothesis. The larger of these two data will be the one that is incorporated into the 2020 Higher Rank Mortality Hypothesis Table.

Once the data have been integrated into the historical series, we will have the result of the 1960-2020 graph for each of the Hypotheses (Lower and Upper Range).

Below we will describe the Study, its procedure, data, assumptions, calculations and graphs. If you prefer, you can also go directly to the Study Conclusions.

Start Data:

Historical series of mortality in Spain from 1960 to 2019 (source: article on Mortality in the financial newspaper Expansión).

Mortality data for the period from 03/13/2020 to 08/13/2020 (source: document from the National Epidemiology Center (ISCIII) dated August 19, 2020.

We have discarded more up-to-date data because after this date the National Epidemiology Center (ISCIII) changed the format in which the data was taught, going to give two separate specific periods (waves), so we have to make bigger assumptions the error could be greater. However, these more recent data have been used to make additional checks to the study, which are incorporated at the end of the study.

1) Calculation of the % Average Growth of Predictable Mortality in 2020:

By analyzing the long-term trend of mortality between 1960 and 2019, it can be deduced that Mortality has grown by an average of 1% per year during this period of time.

With the 2019 data, the 2020 Death data is updated and its monthly and daily average values are found. These data reflect the variation in Mortality for 2020 due to its long-term context, without there having been a Pandemic, and we will use these data to complete the information that we do not have in the case under Normal Conditions.

2) Estimate of Predictable Mortality for 2020 in Normal Conditions (C.N.):

With the specific starting data from the National Epidemiology Center (ISCIII) dated August 19, 2020, we have the total mortality for 1 period:

206,757 total deaths from 03/13/2020 to 08/13/2020.

Using data from Figure 1, an average Mortality is estimated for the period for which we do not have exact data but graphics, between 01/01/2020 and 03/12/2020, as these are low volatile periods the assumption is reasonable and not will distort the Study.

It will be assumed that for that remaining period (08/14/2020 - 12/31/2020), Mortality will continue in Normal conditions, and will be completed with the information on Predictable Deaths for 2020.

Adding the mortality for all periods of the year we will have the Predictable Mortality Estimate for 2020 in Normal Conditions.

3) Estimate of Predictable Mortality for 2020 in Pandemic Conditions (C.P.):

With the specific starting data from the National Epidemiology Center (ISCIII) dated August 19, 2020, we have the total mortality for 1 period:

206,757 total deaths from 03/13/2020 to 08/13/2020.

The procedure is the same as in the previous point using real numerical data or approximate graphs, it varies only when it is necessary to estimate the average mortality of the days of the year for which no data is available.

For this case of Pandemic Conditions, what we will do is transfer the data for this year until August, until the end of the year, calculating the average daily mortality for the period for which we do have data. And we will apply it to the period without data. It is important to say that in cases of having a short period of time with real data, the results will be different than if we have a long period of time with real times. That is, in the cases in which we have a short period with real data of real Deaths for 2020, the assumptions will have to be greater than if we have real data for a long period of the year and we have to assume only a month or a few days of the year. The margin of error will also be different accordingly, another thing is how that error affects the long-term chart, which we will see later.

Consequently, in Pandemic Conditions, the average number of deaths is applied to the date in which we do have data for this year 2020 (01/01/2020 - 08/13/2020) to the rest of the year, with which it is a question of giving that inertia of mortality of this same year 2020.